June 2024. The Other Side Of The Coin.

I might begin by saying that we all have our own version of truth, something that we perceive is right, even though sometimes only representing one version of the truth. We collect together as much evidence as we can on the matter and decide if it fits our own emotional belief. It is not a fool proof system by any means, but has to suffice. Sometimes, of course, it can be accurate, at others wildly out of line. All of this is dependent on the information we see, read or hear. The only one of these three that is of any moment is the first, and even that depends on our own satisfactory evaluation, not something that is always successful. 

For example, at the moment I am still pondering on the human catastrophe that is the Ukraine, given that every piece of information one gathers from the popular broadcasting, and general news outlets on this subject, are at best very second, or third hand. More to the point, it is very polarised. After all, countries do not go to war on a whim! One way to partially escape this pitfall is to examine the very opposite before “balancing the books”.

In much the same way as the United Kingdom is made up of four distinct countries, Ukraine has an ethnic Russian community making up 17.3% of the population - something over eight million of the Ukrainian population - settled in the Donbas/Crimea region, ethnically, linguistically, religiously and culturally Russian.Victor Yanukovych, a member of this community, was the 4th President of modern Ukraine, the second largest country in Europe, becoming independent in 1991 on the fall of the Soviet Union. Democratically elected in 2010 in an internationally recognised “free and fair” election judged by independent observers. His four years in office were blighted by heavy handed opposition to those who demanded an alternative political direction - though hardly by a democratic process, sometimes criminally, on their part, along with the supportive help of covert foreign agencies.  Given that Ukrainian politics is considered to be studded with cronyism and criminal practices, his removal from office by armed insurrection, seemed hardly surprising. An additional aspect to this conclusion centred on Yanukovych being pro-Russian, and having a poor command of the Ukrainian language.  Therefore, this seems to have been good enough reason for US and EU efforts to unseat him.

That the United States was a prime mover in the overthrow of Yanukovych was motivated by his standing in the way of the present US policy of surrounding Russia by NATO countries - that is against a well-documented tacit agreement between President Kennedy and President Gorbachev. Based on this agreement, Russia will not accept affiliation of Ukraine with the West - thus halting the US hegemony from expanding. The problem was further aggravated by the failure of the European Union, hoping in the aftermath, to increase its faltering ascendence and influence in Europe. A side show may be the, not unimportant, relationship between Hunter Biden and the Ukrainian gas company Burisma, that even now may be exposed as a classical “peddling of influence” where, for example, the ‘family Biden’ is used to cover windfall payments - another example of the supposed Hilary Clintons “Christmas card List!”

Observing the facilitating of arms from the US into Ukraine, in February 2022 Russia launched a military intervention into that country, expecting a quick and convenient victory. Using older equipment, for a period it found its advance stalled, but on rectifying this problem now controls the whole of the eastern region bordering the Black Sea, including the island of Crimea. The Black Sea ports are important to Russia, giving its Navy access to the Mediterranean Sea and the wider Atlantic. Rather more psychologically important is the fact that Donetsk is in the east.  It was also important for Ukraine as its ports were necessary in the transport of grain to international markets.

There are some aspects to this war that are not readily apparent to those citizens of participating nations, of which the United Kingdom is a prominent member.

One probably remembers Bulldog Boris Johnson hastily rushing with a substantial 54 million pounds of aid during 2022. That may well turn out to be money the United Kingdom cannot spare, and undoubtably not well spent. More to the point, it’s unlikely that United Kingdom citizens are aware that with this gesture Russia can now legally attack the United Kingdom for supplying arms or aid to Ukraine, as such a policy makes that country combatants, and no longer neutral.  This action had never been spelt out to UK citizens

President Zelensky, it appears, is also fighting well above his weight; demonstrated by the United States being very nervous about Zelensky’s demand for F16 fighter jets given that Russia has a very advanced air defence system making such aircraft vulnerable, and in danger of being swiftly lost. Without such air cover, tanks are massively disadvantaged, an aspect that seriously undermines Ukraine’s chances of winning this war. Perhaps more importantly the war is depleting Allied munition supplies putting defence industries under considerable strain. In the West, the rate of consumption is greater that the rate of production! If push comes to shove, we will be in a parlous position.

The United States must also be aware of Russian submarines sitting off the coast of South America, some possibly carrying hypersonic missiles capable of 3000 mph, or the latest models flying at mach12, or 9000 mph. It goes without saying that they could be armed with nuclear war heads. The United States would be a sitting duck. That the West, it appears, has no such balancing weapons means, baiting the bear, may well end up to be the West’s Armageddon.

So, where does that leave us? This is actually not a stalemate, as I believe Russia has achieved its main aim - that is, to open up its access to the Mediterranean Sea and beyond, making external countries within military reach. For the west, badly advised by its governments, they are left paying for an incursion that took place without any prior discussion or consent of its people, leaving them with a difficult fait-accompli. The time for a sensible conversation may not yet be past, and perhaps a new President in the United States may undo this mess of our own making.